Aluminum market report October 2012
2012-11-13 09:35:23 【Print】
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Contents
Abstract 1
1. Financial Overview 1
1.1 Chinese domestic financial overview 1
1.1.1 CPI up by 1.9% and PPI down by 3.6% YOY in September 1
1.1.2 Chinese PMI picked up in October 2
1.2 International Financial Overview 3
1.2.1 Futures prices of crude oil downward in October 3
1.2.2 European economy remained depressed while US dollar index rebounded in concussion 4
1.2.3 More uncertainty expected in non-ferrous metals industry due to sluggish global economy 5
2 Company news 5
2.1 International company news 5
2.2 Chinese domestic market 6
3 Chinese domestic market review 8
3.1 Aluminum ingot market 8
3.1.1 Aluminum ingot price dropped to record low points 8
3.1.2 Aluminum ingot stocks reach record high levels 9
3.2 Alumina 9
3.2.1 Alumina price hard to go up obviously 9
3.3 Aluminum alloy 10
3.3.1 Offers for secondary aluminum alloy ingot down 10
3.3.2 Purchasing in secondary aluminum ingot market down with production decrease of Japanese motors plants 11
3.4 Carbon anode 11
3.4.1 Carbon anode market remains slack 11
3.4.2 Carbon cathode orders decline 12
4 International market review 12
4.1 LME aluminum price dropped by 8.99% in October 12
4.2 LME aluminum inventories increased by 27,600 tons 13
4.3 Chinese aluminum alloy export price kept continuous down 13
4.4 Bauxite 14
4.4.1 Indonesia bauxite export quota and price increases 14
4.4.2 High-held freight restricts South America bauxite export to China 15
4.5 Australian origin alumina market keeps relatively stable 16
4.6 Aluminum fluoride export price touches bottom 17
5 Related industry development 18
5.1 Petroleum coke and coal tar pitch prices decline 18
5.2 The aluminum fluoride price rebounds 18
5.3 Aluminum hydroxide market changes little 19
5.4 Prices of Chinese aluminum scraps down with slack purchasing 20
5.5 Chinese aluminum semi-products market stayed dull 20
6 Production data 21
6.1 Primary aluminum 21
6.1.1 New capacity released products gradually in October 21
6.1.2 Release of new capacity slows down 22
6.2 Aluminum alloy 22
6.2.1 Chinese aluminum alloy production up by 440,000t YOY in the first nine months of 2012 22
6.2.2 Operating rate of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy plant down to 42% in Oct under slacker Chinese and overseas markets 23
6.2.3 Chinese motors sales down by 1.8% YOY in Sep 24
6.3 Alumina 25
6.3.1 Chinese aluminum production up by 2.8% MOM 25
6.4 Aluminum fluoride 27
6.4.1 Chinese aluminum fluoride output down by 24.3% in October MOM 27
6.5 Carbon anode 28
6.5.1 Chinese carbon anode output increases slightly by 0.2% MOM in October 28
7 Import & Export data analysis 29
7.1 Bauxite 29
7.1.1 Chinese bauxite import down by 62.08% YOY in September 29
7.1.2 Chinese Bauxite importers in September 30
7.2 Alumina 31
7.2.1 Chinese alumina import up by 496.05% YOY in September 31
7.2.2 Top eight alumina importers in September 31
7.3 Aluminum alloy 32
7.3.1 Chinese aluminum alloy export down by 34.7% YOY in Sep with slacker Japanese market 32
7.3.2 Chinese top ten aluminum alloy exporters in Sep 2012 33
7.4 Aluminum semi-products 34
7.4.1 Chinese aluminum semi-products export up by 5.3% YOY 34
7.5 Aluminum scraps 35
7.4.1 Chinese aluminum scraps import down by 15,000t in Sep MOM 35
7.4.2 Chinese top ten aluminum scraps importers in Sep 2012 36
7.6 Aluminum fluoride 37
7.6.1 Chinese aluminum fluoride export up by 32.97% MOM in September 37
7.6.2 Chinese aluminum fluoride exporters in September 37
8 Outlook for November 38
8.1 The space for aluminum ingot price to go down is limited 38
8.2 Alumina price may stabilize at current level 38
8.3 Carbon anode price may keep stable 38
8.4 Aluminum fluoride price may keep going up but hard to reach a high level 39
Picture& Table Column
Picture 1 Chinese CPI and PPI trend 2011-2012 2
Picture 2 Chinese PMI 2011-2012 3
Picture 3 Futures price trend of US crude oil in main contracts 4
Picture 4 US dollar index trend 4
Picture 5 Aluminum Ingot price in Chinese market (RMB/t) 9
Picture 6 Chinese origin alumina price movement Jan-Oct (RMB/t) 10
Picture 7 Chinese ADC12 aluminum alloy price movement in October (Unit: RMB/t) 11
Picture 8 LME aluminum cash price chart (USD/t) 13
Picture 9 ADC12 aluminum alloy export price CIF Japan movement in Oct (Unit: USD/t) 14
Picture 10 Indonesia bauxite export price CIF China 15
Picture 11 Chinese bauxite import price curve 15
Picture 12 Australian origin alumina price movement Jan-Oct (USD/t) 16
Picture 13 Australian origin alumina CIF China price movement Jan-Oct (USD/t) 17
Picture 14 Chinese aluminum fluoride export price FOB 17
Picture 15 Chinese aluminum fluoride export price by long-term contracts 18
Picture 16 Aluminum fluoride price movement from Jan to Oct (RMB/t) 19
Picture 17 Aluminum hydroxide price movement Jan-Oct (RMB/t) 19
Picture 18 Chinese aluminum alloy production in 2011 and 2012 23
Picture 19 Operating rate of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy ingot plants from Jan to Oct 2012 24
Picture 20 Chinese motors production and sales in 2011 and 2012 25
Picture 21 Chinese alumina production in 2012 26
Picture 22 Aluminum fluoride output from Jan. to Oct. 27
Picture 23 Chinese carbon anode output in Oct 29
Picture 24 Chinese bauxite import in 2012 29
Picture 25 Chinese bauxite imports from different sources in September, 2012 30
Picture 26 Chinese alumina import in 2012 31
Picture 27 Chinese aluminum alloy export in 2011 and 2012 32
Picture 28 Aluminum alloy import market shares of Japan in 2011 and 2012 33
Picture 29 Chinese aluminum semi-products export in 2012 34
Picture 30 Chinese aluminum scraps import in 2011 and 2012 (Unit: ton). 36
Picture 31 Chinese aluminum fluoride export Jan-Sep. 37
Table 1 Chinese Carbon anode price by region on 26 Oct 11
Table 2 30 Oct Chinese aluminum scrap prices by region 20
Table 3 Output of electrolytic in Chinese major producing areas in September (Unit: 10,000t) 21
Table 4 Major Chinese bauxite importers in September, 2012 30
Table 5 Top eight Chinese alumina import companies in September 2012 31
Table 6 Chinese top ten aluminum alloy exporters in Sep 2012 33
Table 7 Chinese top ten aluminum scraps importers in Sep 2012 36
Table 8 Chinese aluminum fluoride exporters in September, 2012 37
Abstract 1
1. Financial Overview 1
1.1 Chinese domestic financial overview 1
1.1.1 CPI up by 1.9% and PPI down by 3.6% YOY in September 1
1.1.2 Chinese PMI picked up in October 2
1.2 International Financial Overview 3
1.2.1 Futures prices of crude oil downward in October 3
1.2.2 European economy remained depressed while US dollar index rebounded in concussion 4
1.2.3 More uncertainty expected in non-ferrous metals industry due to sluggish global economy 5
2 Company news 5
2.1 International company news 5
2.2 Chinese domestic market 6
3 Chinese domestic market review 8
3.1 Aluminum ingot market 8
3.1.1 Aluminum ingot price dropped to record low points 8
3.1.2 Aluminum ingot stocks reach record high levels 9
3.2 Alumina 9
3.2.1 Alumina price hard to go up obviously 9
3.3 Aluminum alloy 10
3.3.1 Offers for secondary aluminum alloy ingot down 10
3.3.2 Purchasing in secondary aluminum ingot market down with production decrease of Japanese motors plants 11
3.4 Carbon anode 11
3.4.1 Carbon anode market remains slack 11
3.4.2 Carbon cathode orders decline 12
4 International market review 12
4.1 LME aluminum price dropped by 8.99% in October 12
4.2 LME aluminum inventories increased by 27,600 tons 13
4.3 Chinese aluminum alloy export price kept continuous down 13
4.4 Bauxite 14
4.4.1 Indonesia bauxite export quota and price increases 14
4.4.2 High-held freight restricts South America bauxite export to China 15
4.5 Australian origin alumina market keeps relatively stable 16
4.6 Aluminum fluoride export price touches bottom 17
5 Related industry development 18
5.1 Petroleum coke and coal tar pitch prices decline 18
5.2 The aluminum fluoride price rebounds 18
5.3 Aluminum hydroxide market changes little 19
5.4 Prices of Chinese aluminum scraps down with slack purchasing 20
5.5 Chinese aluminum semi-products market stayed dull 20
6 Production data 21
6.1 Primary aluminum 21
6.1.1 New capacity released products gradually in October 21
6.1.2 Release of new capacity slows down 22
6.2 Aluminum alloy 22
6.2.1 Chinese aluminum alloy production up by 440,000t YOY in the first nine months of 2012 22
6.2.2 Operating rate of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy plant down to 42% in Oct under slacker Chinese and overseas markets 23
6.2.3 Chinese motors sales down by 1.8% YOY in Sep 24
6.3 Alumina 25
6.3.1 Chinese aluminum production up by 2.8% MOM 25
6.4 Aluminum fluoride 27
6.4.1 Chinese aluminum fluoride output down by 24.3% in October MOM 27
6.5 Carbon anode 28
6.5.1 Chinese carbon anode output increases slightly by 0.2% MOM in October 28
7 Import & Export data analysis 29
7.1 Bauxite 29
7.1.1 Chinese bauxite import down by 62.08% YOY in September 29
7.1.2 Chinese Bauxite importers in September 30
7.2 Alumina 31
7.2.1 Chinese alumina import up by 496.05% YOY in September 31
7.2.2 Top eight alumina importers in September 31
7.3 Aluminum alloy 32
7.3.1 Chinese aluminum alloy export down by 34.7% YOY in Sep with slacker Japanese market 32
7.3.2 Chinese top ten aluminum alloy exporters in Sep 2012 33
7.4 Aluminum semi-products 34
7.4.1 Chinese aluminum semi-products export up by 5.3% YOY 34
7.5 Aluminum scraps 35
7.4.1 Chinese aluminum scraps import down by 15,000t in Sep MOM 35
7.4.2 Chinese top ten aluminum scraps importers in Sep 2012 36
7.6 Aluminum fluoride 37
7.6.1 Chinese aluminum fluoride export up by 32.97% MOM in September 37
7.6.2 Chinese aluminum fluoride exporters in September 37
8 Outlook for November 38
8.1 The space for aluminum ingot price to go down is limited 38
8.2 Alumina price may stabilize at current level 38
8.3 Carbon anode price may keep stable 38
8.4 Aluminum fluoride price may keep going up but hard to reach a high level 39
Picture& Table Column
Picture 1 Chinese CPI and PPI trend 2011-2012 2
Picture 2 Chinese PMI 2011-2012 3
Picture 3 Futures price trend of US crude oil in main contracts 4
Picture 4 US dollar index trend 4
Picture 5 Aluminum Ingot price in Chinese market (RMB/t) 9
Picture 6 Chinese origin alumina price movement Jan-Oct (RMB/t) 10
Picture 7 Chinese ADC12 aluminum alloy price movement in October (Unit: RMB/t) 11
Picture 8 LME aluminum cash price chart (USD/t) 13
Picture 9 ADC12 aluminum alloy export price CIF Japan movement in Oct (Unit: USD/t) 14
Picture 10 Indonesia bauxite export price CIF China 15
Picture 11 Chinese bauxite import price curve 15
Picture 12 Australian origin alumina price movement Jan-Oct (USD/t) 16
Picture 13 Australian origin alumina CIF China price movement Jan-Oct (USD/t) 17
Picture 14 Chinese aluminum fluoride export price FOB 17
Picture 15 Chinese aluminum fluoride export price by long-term contracts 18
Picture 16 Aluminum fluoride price movement from Jan to Oct (RMB/t) 19
Picture 17 Aluminum hydroxide price movement Jan-Oct (RMB/t) 19
Picture 18 Chinese aluminum alloy production in 2011 and 2012 23
Picture 19 Operating rate of Chinese secondary aluminum alloy ingot plants from Jan to Oct 2012 24
Picture 20 Chinese motors production and sales in 2011 and 2012 25
Picture 21 Chinese alumina production in 2012 26
Picture 22 Aluminum fluoride output from Jan. to Oct. 27
Picture 23 Chinese carbon anode output in Oct 29
Picture 24 Chinese bauxite import in 2012 29
Picture 25 Chinese bauxite imports from different sources in September, 2012 30
Picture 26 Chinese alumina import in 2012 31
Picture 27 Chinese aluminum alloy export in 2011 and 2012 32
Picture 28 Aluminum alloy import market shares of Japan in 2011 and 2012 33
Picture 29 Chinese aluminum semi-products export in 2012 34
Picture 30 Chinese aluminum scraps import in 2011 and 2012 (Unit: ton). 36
Picture 31 Chinese aluminum fluoride export Jan-Sep. 37
Table 1 Chinese Carbon anode price by region on 26 Oct 11
Table 2 30 Oct Chinese aluminum scrap prices by region 20
Table 3 Output of electrolytic in Chinese major producing areas in September (Unit: 10,000t) 21
Table 4 Major Chinese bauxite importers in September, 2012 30
Table 5 Top eight Chinese alumina import companies in September 2012 31
Table 6 Chinese top ten aluminum alloy exporters in Sep 2012 33
Table 7 Chinese top ten aluminum scraps importers in Sep 2012 36
Table 8 Chinese aluminum fluoride exporters in September, 2012 37
