Polysilicon price starts picking up from bottom
2011-07-06 17:56:22 [Print]
Seeing from the statistics of the past two weeks, the polysilicon price has started to rebound after the sharp price depreciation of the prior stage. Meanwhile, the monocrystal battery price also has signs to rebound, while the downstream component price keeps stable and is likely to rebound if there is demand stimulation in the future.
The PV industry is going to enter the traditional industrial peak season and the demand looks to continue increasing.
It is the peak season of photovoltaic industry in Q3. As the demand in the first half of this year is almost stagnant, the operating quantity in Q3 looks to exceed our expectations, while Germany abolished lowering subsidies on July 1, which is also a stronger stimulating factor. The rate of return on investment is likely to maintain at a good level, which may further stimulate demand, when the component price dropped 30% this time.
The inventories of the component enterprises gradually return to the reasonable level with increasing rate of gross profit.
Although the global inventory keeps as high as 8GW in Q2, the component inventory is close to the reasonable level of 4-5GW due to the price depreciation to move materials in the prior stage. Meanwhile, the component enterprises are currently operating well and the gross profit will slightly rebound after the sharp decrease of polysilicon price.
The industry is likely to rebound and the chance is bigger than the risk.
After experiencing the stagnant demand in March to May, the industry is unlikely to become even worse and it is essentially inevitable to slightly rebound. Although the current demand recovery is not very strong, the industry is likely to slightly rebound in September if the demand further increases in Q3. At present, the total industrial investment chance is bigger than the risks.
The PV industry is going to enter the traditional industrial peak season and the demand looks to continue increasing.
It is the peak season of photovoltaic industry in Q3. As the demand in the first half of this year is almost stagnant, the operating quantity in Q3 looks to exceed our expectations, while Germany abolished lowering subsidies on July 1, which is also a stronger stimulating factor. The rate of return on investment is likely to maintain at a good level, which may further stimulate demand, when the component price dropped 30% this time.
The inventories of the component enterprises gradually return to the reasonable level with increasing rate of gross profit.
Although the global inventory keeps as high as 8GW in Q2, the component inventory is close to the reasonable level of 4-5GW due to the price depreciation to move materials in the prior stage. Meanwhile, the component enterprises are currently operating well and the gross profit will slightly rebound after the sharp decrease of polysilicon price.
The industry is likely to rebound and the chance is bigger than the risk.
After experiencing the stagnant demand in March to May, the industry is unlikely to become even worse and it is essentially inevitable to slightly rebound. Although the current demand recovery is not very strong, the industry is likely to slightly rebound in September if the demand further increases in Q3. At present, the total industrial investment chance is bigger than the risks.
Silicon Metal 5-5-3 Delivered China
Unit:RMB/mt
China silicon metal producers' inventory to production ratio statistics by province by month
Unit: %
