Liang Ying: Cancelation of export duty benefits Chinese manganese industry

Asian Metal: Good day, Ms Liang. Thank you for accepting the interview of Asian Metal. Could you please make a brief introduction of your company?

Liang: Hongxin Group is a private enterprise. We own a manganese carbonate mine with a production capacity of 600,000tpy, and 5 electrolytic manganese mills with a production capacity of 137,000tpy, distributing in Hubei and Hunan Province. We achieved an actual output of 80,000t for electrolytic manganese in 2012, leading to sales revenue of RMB1.27 billion, among which 15% was contributed by exports. We plan to expand our oversea business in 2013 and we have already invested in manganese ore in Ukraine and Bolivia. Our project in Ukraine has entered the design stage and is hopefully to begin construction in late 2013.

Asian Metal: How much do you expect the total output of Chinese electrolytic manganese to be in 2013?

Liang: According to related data, the total output of Chinese electrolytic manganese in 2012 is 1,160,000t, and the production capacity is expected to reach 2,600,000t this year, while the total demand will be at about 1,300,000t, which may lead to severe oversupply in the second half of this year.

Asian Metal: How do you evaluate the market performance after the cancelation of Chinese manganese export duty?

Liang: Affected by the smuggling, the export volume of Chinese electrolytic manganese witnessed a slide in 2012 compared with that in 2011.

As we all know, the Chinese manganese export duty was removed on January 1, 2013. According to the customs data, China exported 4,487t of unwrought manganese and 4,228t of wrought manganese in January, increasing by 32.7% and decreasing by 53.2% respectively month on month. Therefore, the cancelation of manganese export duty has changed the export pattern of Chinese electrolytic manganese, and most foreign manganese briquette end users are expected to turn to manganese flake and manganese lump as manganese briquette has lost its tariff advantages.

In the meantime, main import markets of manganese like Europe, America, Japan and South Korea have come back to the normal procurement channels. A number of foreign end users and large traders intend to sign long-term contracts with Chinese leading manganese producers. Judging from our sales performance in January and February, the market saw much more inquiries from foreign buyers with a relatively high orders conversion rate. Therefore, we believe that the export volume will increase in 2013 and the price may show a trend of upward shocks in the first half of this year.

Asian Metal: Will you make adjustments according to the changes in demand of manganese flake, manganese briquette and manganese lump from foreign end users?

Liang: We will reinforce the export of manganese flake and manganese lump this year. We used to outsource most of the processing of manganese lump, but we plan to expand our own production capacity of manganese lump to 20,000tpy this year. Besides, we will not expand the production capacity of manganese briquette since the demand of the material from foreign end users will be very weak this year. We intend to increase our export volume of electrolytic manganese to over 20,000t in 2013.

Asian Metal: What are the reasons for ups and downs in manganese prices recently? Will the prices increase again before the summer break?

Liang: There are three vital reasons for the price increase after the Spring Festival holiday. Firstly, the cancelation of manganese export duty gave a certain boost to the market; secondly, the increasing costs of raw materials pulled up the prices; thirdly, the stockpiling of steel mills before the Spring Festival holiday and the low production in February lead to the tight supply in the market. With steel mills reducing the purchasing quantity and manganese producers expanding the production, the prices fell back recently.

Generally speaking, the stockpiling before the summer break in Western countries will increase the export volume of Chinese manganese in May and June every year, causing the price to increase as well. Many participants expect the price of manganese flake to go up to RMB15,000/t at that time. However, the situation is not optimistic in the second half of 2013, with an added production capacity of 400,000t for electrolytic manganese across the country, which will surely lead to more fierce competition within the industry.

Asian Metal: Many producers suspended production of manganese in 2012. How many manganese mills are still in production in Hubei and Hunan Province?

Liang: The operating rate in Hubei and Hunan Province should be about 55% at the moment. To keep balance between supply and demand, 50% is a reasonable operating rate for manganese industry, while the current one is easy to lead to oversupply and price decrease.

Asian Metal: What’s the current level of costs of manganese flake?

Liang: For those who have own manganese mines, the production cost is about RMB12,000/t, while it will go up to RMB15,000/t if producers need to import manganese ore. Prices of raw materials like manganese ore and sulfuric acid are likely to increase in the coming months.

Asian Metal: Compared with other producers and exporters, what are the advantages of Changyang Hongxin?

Liang: The largest advantage of our company is that we have our own mines, which are very close to our mills, allowing us to conduct integrative production. Secondly, Changyang is only 50 kilometres away from Yichang Port, leading to very convenient transportation conditions. Besides, we plan to achieve a production capacity of 2,000,000tpy for manganese ore and 50,000tpy for manganese flake in our Ukrainian project in 3 years, which will mainly supply manganese flake to European market.

Asian Metal: Thanks for your support, wish a bright future of Changyang Hongxin.